Is KiwiRail going back to the bad old days?

While much attention focused on the replacement Cook Strait ferries still being rail-enabled, the 2024-2027 Rail Network Investment Programme has quietly surfaced, Darren Davis writes in  Adventures in Transitland

KiwiRail Rail Freight Classification from the Rail Network Investment Programme

The “busiest and most productive parts of the existing rail network” is code for the Golden Triangle of the Upper North Island (all classified F1 in the table above); the rest of the North Island Main Trunk (generally classified F2) and individual isolated sections of the rest of the national rail network.

The Golden Triangle of the Upper North Island of New Zealand. Image credit: Crown Relocations

But significant key chunks of the South Island rail network are classified as F3 including Christchurch – Picton and Rolleston (just outside Christchurch) – Sawyers Bay (just outside Dunedin). The North Auckland Line, just expensively upgraded to carry higher freight axle loads and with clearance for hi-cube containers, is classified as F4.

Connecting the dots between “investing in the busiest and most productive parts of the existing rail network to support the efficient movement of freight” and the classification shows that the Government’s emphasis is on the Golden Triangle of Auckland, Hamilton and Tauranga (which has around 40 per cent of New Zealand’s population) with a lesser emphasis on the rest of the North Island Main Trunk line.

This has significant implications for the South Island. While the decision to purchase new rail-enabled ferries is good news, what is not so good news is the low priority given to the spine of the South Island rail network from Picton to Dunedin.

Are we back to managed decline?

In the Efficiency and Productivity section of the Rail Network Investment Programme (RNIP), it states: “Value for money is a core driver of the GPS [Government Policy Statement for Land Transport] and for KiwiRail and is therefore woven through this RNIP. It means taking needs-based investment decisions which prioritise productive use of the network and safety critical investments.”

Again, what is not said here is as, if not more, critical than what is said. But this is made more explicit a bit further on where it states: “Over the next three years, KiwiRail will instead focus on improving reliability on the busiest, most productive routes, maintaining performance in other priority routes and safety and compliance on secondary routes.” [my emphasis]

This seems to clearly a signal to the return of the bad old days of privatisation where the network was “maintained” largely through speed restrictions where maintenance is either deferred or not carried out at all on “secondary” lines of the network.

It has been enormously expensive to recover the New Zealand rail network, including the metropolitan networks in Auckland and Wellington, to a more acceptable standard. Auckland will get close to this with City Rail Link while Wellington still has a significant backlog of overdue maintenance. And it would be terrible to return to the bad old days.

While it is a positive that the Government sees the benefit in metropolitan rail networks and in Golden Triangle rail, a return to what is in effect managed decline for much of the rest of the rail network is very bad news. This includes the trunk South Island rail network and nearly all branch lines in the North Island outside of the Golden Triangle.

The Rail Network Investment Programme somewhat euphemistically states that “At this level of investment, it will take longer than previously envisioned to achieve a resilient and reliable national rail network.”

The good news

According to a KiwiRail presentation to the Wellington Regional Transport Committee meeting on 1st April 2025, “there will be a variation to the [Rail Network Investment Plan] based on the outcome of Budget 2025, due to be handed down on 22 May 2025.

Extract from KiwiRail presentation to the Wellington Regional Transport Committee meeting on 1 April 2025

While I do not own a personal crystal ball, there are a couple of clues in the Rail Network Investment Programme itself. The plan provides $65 million in funding for a detailed engineering design for the Marsden Point rail link. This is a planned 19 kilometre spur designated in 2012 off the North Auckland line at Oakleigh to Northport at Marsden Point, one of the only non-rail connected ports in New Zealand. The bulk of this money is due to be spent in the 2025/2026 and 2026/2027 financial years.

Marsden Point Rail Link route. Image source: KiwiRail websiteIn addition, there is still some funding left for the upgrade of the North Auckland line between Whangārei and Otiria to support 18-tonne axle loads, intended to promote rail transport of Northland logs. This funding was previously on hold pending the outcome of decisions on the Marsden Point rail link.

Rail Network Investment Programme 2024/2027, page 80

But wait, there’s more. There is also $40 million worth of Provincial Growth Fund money for land acquisition with $11.4 million remaining to be spent in the current (2024/2025) financial year.

Rail Network Investment Programme 2024/2027, page 81

According to the KiwiRail update to the Northland Regional Transport Committee on 1 April 2025,

“A lot of work has already been done – including geotechnical testing of ground conditions along the 19km route. We have been engaging with landowners and mana whenua along the route and have now purchased most of the land needed. We have also made a slight realignment to part of the route to avoid cutting across any Māori freehold land, with the required change to the rail designation (consent) currently with Whangārei District Council for approval. KiwiRail is working on the detailed business case, including accurate costings to build the new line…We intend to submit the business case to the Government later this year.”

KiwiRail update to Northland Regional Transport Committee, 1 April 2025

While we need to wait until the New Zealand budget is announced on 22 May 2025, it would be very unusual for a project where land acquisition is close to being completed and where detailed design investment is committed not to proceed to construction.

Final thoughts

• The devil is in the detail of the Rail Network Investment Programme 2024-2027 and often such documents are written in a coded way where you need to read between the lines. And look out for what is not included.
• But clearly this is not good news for the secondary lines in the New Zealand rail network, and for the bulk of the South Island rail network in particular. It’s hard to read this as anything other than a return to the bad old days of “managed decline” of the secondary rail network of the privatisation era.
• In the list of things not included is any mention of passenger rail outside of Auckland and Wellington – apart from passing mentions of the existing tourist-oriented services and the existing commitment to new rolling stock for Lower North Island regional services.
• Northland appears to be the exception that proves the rule, aided by its position in the Upper North Island. People cognisant with the political dynamics of the current New Zealand coalition government may wish to speculate on why Northland appears to find such favour.
• While it’s mostly bad news, it was also curtains three decades ago for urban rail in Tāmaki Makaurau/ Auckland, Aotearoa/ New Zealand’s largest city (population ~1.8 million). Even with the current not particularly rail favourable government, there is heavy and ongoing investment in the Auckland and Wellington rail networks.
• The new Minister of Transport, Chris Bishop, has in the past expressed support for investment in Golden Triangle rail so it will be interesting to see if there are any specific announcements about this in the 2025 budget, including following on from business case work done on potential extensions of rail electrification.