Rocket Lab’s world-first rocket launch from a private launch site has been applauded by leading scientists – along with expert advice for future success
The general record of the launch industry for first flights of a new rocket is around 50 per cent so success was certainly not guaranteed, says an authoritative US rocket expert.
Independent consultant, former Chief Scientist and Vice-President of Lockheed Martin and Boeing joint venture United Launch Alliance, Dr George Sowers says there are three sorts of challenges in the space business.
They are:
- technology risk – “Rocket Lab seems well on their way to getting this under control”
- performance risk – can they manufacture and launch repeatedly and reliability, on schedule? “This challenge is still in front of them”
- market risk – are there enough customers willing to pay Rocket Lab’s prices for them to achieve business success?
“The last is the toughest part and involves factors out of their control,” Sowers admits.
Former Project Manager at United Launch Alliance and former Director of all NASA launch programmes for Boeing Kris Walsh also hailed the achievement but had words of warning for future flights.
“Rocket Lab must evaluate all anomalies in the 25,000 channels of data, develop a plan to the next launch, then execute that plan,” he explains.
Rocket Lab engineers have already begun analysing data from last week’s historic launch from the Mahia Peninsula to improve the performance for two further tests.
The first orbital-class rocket launched from a private launch site in the world saw New Zealand become the 11th country with potential to launch cargo into space.
Rocket Lab founder and Chief Executive Peter Beck admits there is still more work to be done, despite the success of a rocket that took three minutes to reach space following a first stage burn, stage separation, second stage ignition and fairing separation.
“We didn’t quite reach orbit and we’ll be investigating why,” he says.
“However, reaching space in our first test puts us in an incredibly strong position to accelerate the commercial phase of our programme.”
The programme must make it to orbit and able to deploy small satellites to be commercially successful, but Beck remains upbeat.
“We’re one of a few companies to ever develop a rocket from scratch and we did it in under four years,” Beck notes.
Rocket Lab’s successful launch was the result of several pioneering initiatives, Director of the Leicester Institute of Space & Earth Observation Professor Martin Barstow notes.
“I think the use of 3-D printing techniques to produce key components is very novel and likely to lower production costs, giving them a pricing edge,” he believes.
“It could also help with reliability.”
However, he sees no “particular advantages” in launching from New Zealand compared to existing sites.
“In fact, the best launch sites are closer to the equator to get the maximum advantage from the Earth’s rotation,” Barstow explains.
“So, this is more about developing independent capability, so that the country does not have to rely on launch services from elsewhere.”
Both Rocket Lab and overseas counterparts such as SpaceX are private ventures changing access to space.
“This is really about lower costs and creating true commercial – and profitable – markets for space services to drive future space activities.”
Launching small payloads isn’t viable, but Barstow sees the current rocket as a stepping stone to further success.
“Once a successful track record is developed, it is possible to scale-up the systems, as Space-X did.”
Sowers also praises Rocket Lab’s “interesting” technology such as the electric pump-driven engine.
However, he also believes the small payload launch market is an extremely difficult sector for commercial companies to make a profit.
There are several reasons for this, Sowers says. “First, the small payload market is not robust.
“There are many potential customers, but few are able to afford the price of a dedicated launch.
“On the bright side, there is some indication that the market might be picking up, for example with companies like Planet.”
Second, there is fierce competition from nations such as India, China and Russia and larger launchers offering small payload launches as rideshare.
“Plus, there are a number of other companies vying for the same market,” Sowers notes.
“If Rocket Lab succeeds, they will be the first commercial company to do so in the small market.
“Many have failed, including SpaceX, who discontinued the Falcon 1 small launcher after only a handful of launches.”
Taking a contrary view, Walsh believes that if Rocket Lab can capture a market ignored by the current industry if the company can quickly get reliable, with on -time launches.
Rocket Lab could make small payloads viable if the company sticks to its business model and target small (nano) payloads, especially constellations.
“The also have to be technically successful both in launch reliability and on-time launches,” Walsh adds.
“They also have to focus on a ship and shoot launch process, minimizing Rocket Lab’s expenses as well as its customers.”
In addition, Rocket Lab have to also shift customers’ expectations.
“Payload processing should be mostly complete before the satellites arrive, reducing or eliminating the need for customer access to the launch site, with customer viewing virtual.”
Walsh also believes any comparison to SpaceX is not realistic.
“SpaceX’s long-term plan was to continue to increase the size of their rockets, and to capture the larger US government payloads.
“SpaceX did not significantly change access to space for commercial ventures.”
