By the end of COP30 counties had failed to agree on a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, however, some countries are currently working on a voluntary plan outside the UN process. “New Zealand faces a stark choice: will we back a few large oil states who continue to block progress or will we support the Pacific and our traditional allies?” says Professor Hayward.
Dr Nathan Cooper, Associate Professor of Law at the University of Waikato, questions why countries including New Zealand continue to undermine effective action on climate change by setting . . . emissions reduction commitments that are not science-aligned and that, collectively, won’t achieve even close to the 1.5 degrees target, despite their legal commitment to do so.”
“Despite failing to address deforestation or critical minerals, this deal [COP30] represents some progress. It acknowledges the need for a ‘just transition’ to support vulnerable workers, it commits to make much more money available to developing countries for climate adaptation.
“But this is still incremental progress. What is really needed is a step change, a quick acceleration to phase down fossil fuels so that the pace of response to climate change starts to match the scale of the challenge,” says Dr Cooper.
Professor Hayward questions the whole process. “Calls are mounting for reform of the COP process, which currently enables a single individual country to veto collective decisions. One of these reforms might already be found in the compromise that was achieved over who hosts the next COP meeting.
“The Republic of Türkiye’s had insisted it should chair the next COP, despite reportedly not having the support of most nations. The stalemate was broken with an agreement that Türkiye would be the host nation but the lead negotiator would come from Australia (Chris Bowen) with a pre-COP meeting hosted by the Pacific.
“The Pacific small island states have been masterful in keeping a focus on the impact of 1.5 degrees of warming and it will be important that New Zealand supports the Pacific to use this new arrangement in effective ways to press their case,” says Professor Hayward.
Meanwhile, agreement to finance adaptation and recognise indicators of effective adaptation was achieved at this COP but only within current budget plans. Given the billions of dollars that a single major storm event can already cost a country, adaptation progress is despairing slow
“And yet, ‘We are still here’ as Brazil’s Environment & Climate Minister Marina Silva said in her closing words at COP. She is well placed to reflect on the importance of diplomatic and civil society struggles to achieve international agreements since Brazil’s first global Earth Summit in Rio De Janeiro back in 1992.
“While the power bloc of the oil states, unchecked by the USA and/or China, has slowed global progress, for New Zealand the choice is more stark: will we back the Pacific and press for real progress or join a few nations who continue to block practical and meaningful climate action,” she says.
“While the cost of living is a real and immediate problem for many nations, more and more governments are realising that if they fail to act to protect their communities from the costs and loss of life involved climate disasters they will also be judged very harshly by voters.”
